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Outline
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Considering Uncertainties in the Functional Unit:
Development of a More Flexible Strategy to Achieve the Goal of an LCA Study
  • Dr. Gontran F. Bage
  • Laurence Toffoletto
  • Pr. Louise Deschênes
  • Pr. Réjean Samson
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Outline
  • Problem: Site remediation, environmental impacts and uncertainties
  • Methodology
    • How to do a probabilistic LCA
    • Model development: METEnvORS
  • Case study: Remediation of a diesel-contaminated site
  • Deterministic approach- Classical LCA
  • Probabilistic approach- Use of METEnvORS
  • Conclusions
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Site remediation, environmental impacts and uncertainties
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Site remediation, environmental impacts and uncertainties
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Site remediation, environmental impacts and uncertainties
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How to do a probabilistic LCA
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Model development: METEnvORS
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Model development: METEnvORS
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Model development: METEnvORS
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Remediation of a diesel-contaminated site
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"Decontaminate 8 000 m3 of..."
  • Decontaminate 8 000 m3 of diesel-contaminated soil from an initial contamination probability distribution q(0%; 1,2%; 98,8%) using a combination of bioventing and biopile to reach either a new state of the site for which the s1 range has the highest probability of occurrence or a maximum of three years of treatment.
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Remediation of a diesel-contaminated site
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Deterministic approach- Classical LCA
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Probabilistic approach- Results
  • The Optimal Remediation Strategy (ORS) is established considering the uncertainties surrounding the real level of contamination and the ease at achieving the remediation goals
  • Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches lead to the selection of the same technology, but
    • ORS is made of 28 scenarios
    • å Probability of occurrence of scenarios with total impact < deterministic approach = 72%
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Probabilistic approach- Results
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Conclusions
  • Using METEnvORS highlights on all the occurrences (scenarios) that a remediation may follow
    • These occurrences are results of uncertainties on the level of contamination and the technology’s effectiveness
  • Since the model is multistage, the decision-maker can, with the information he has collected during a stage, review his technology choice at the beginning of the next stage
  • Knowing the ORS, gives  the decision-maker a better picture of the reality
  • Including these uncertainties into a site remediation LCA provides a better applicability of LCA in environmental management
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Acknowledgements
  • This research has been supported by: